Holiday Retail Sales Edge Trade Group’s Forecast

The National Retail Federation of Washington, D.C., reported 2011 holiday retail sales growth of 4.1 percent to $471.5 billion came in slightly higher than the NRF’s forecast of 3.8 percent, or $469.1 billion.

December retail industry sales, which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, increased 4.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year and decreased .06 percent seasonally adjusted from November, the group reported.

"The right mix of strong promotions, lean inventories and an emphasis on value put retailers in the perfect position to end the year on a high note," said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “A better-than-expected holiday season is welcome news for an economic recovery that continues to be sluggish, and demonstrates retail’s powerful role as an engine of growth.”

The NRF defines the holiday season as retail industry sales in the full months of November and December.

The group had originally estimated the growth in 2011 holiday retail sales to top out at 2.8 percent ($465.6 billion), then increased the estimate to 3.8 percent ($469.1 billion) in December based in large part to a 4.5 percent rise in November retail sales compared to 2010 and an NRF consumer intention survey that showed most holiday shoppers had not finished half of their planned shopping yet.

Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showed total retail sales in December, which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants, increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over November and 6.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

“In a matchup between the final two months of 2011 November clearly wins, but in the end retailers’ promotions struck the right chord for budget-focused holiday shoppers,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist. “Though we are seeing evidence that the economy still has a critical hold on consumers’ purchase decisions, this strength in spending could continue into 2012.”